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Old 09-05-2005, 07:30 PM
Torr Torr is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 16
Default Re: Regarding Jek\'s/BW\'s break-even points for BBJ (long)

Maybe I am way off base but here goes.

Yes in term of win rate, the extra 50 cent drop will effect everyone's BB/100.

Yes at 2/4 this will hurt more than at 5/10 or 15/30.

The numbers for +EV determines when the winning person will come out ahead of the drop. I think the problem lies in that it is a jackpot, so only 1 person sees this +EV situation at a time.

If the +EV number is say $300,000 AND every single jackpot was above that number AND you knew that every 100k hands (its really a lot more but i don't have exact numbers) you played you'd end up losing a bad beat hand to win the biggest share of the BBJ. Then the 50 cent drop would be irrelevant because you are always +EV as long as you play enough hands to handle the variance. You may play 300k hands and never see one and then win four in your next 100k. As long as the BBJ is still over 300k at all times the odds are in your favor to still come out ahead.

The problem is that there is not a large enough sample size to play in over a lifetime to be guaranteed +EV. If you could play infinite hands over a certain BBJ size, you will come out ahead.

Is that what you were contemplating?
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