[BigBrother]

Maybe I was spewing, but my thoughts with this lineup were:

If I bet out (and keep firing), I have a fish who just might call me down the whole way with A-high. I also have 2 TAG's who just might bluff-raise me (It is a big pot, and CO has position on me), or let me bet their hand for them and pop me at the end.

So I check the flop, pretty sure that Fish will check and CO will bet, and that will let me see how button and blind react.

So far it goes as predicted, button and blind folds so I can check-raise and try to pick it up here, but it is a big pot so I doubt CO is going to give up, and the extra SB may or may not make a difference to Fish.

Turn was a blank, so nothing changes except bets are bigger. Betting out seems kind of suspicious since I check-called the flop after preflop-raising. I hate check-calling and can't bear the thought of check-folding to a TAG who will be betting any two cards here. Remember, CO cold-called in a spot where he should have been folding or 3-betting (in position, with just UTG raiser and Fish in the pot). His cold-call gave great odds to Button and BB so it screams Axs or weak suited broadway, or possibly KQ. Small PP is also possible but I'd expect him to want at least another caller in front for that.

I think I have a decent shot at pulling off a c/r bluff, representing AA, KK or JJ. I get 4:1 from the pot after TAG's certain bet, and the most it will cost me on the river is 1BB if I am called, catch a Q or K and still lose to a bigger 2-pair. If I am 3-bet on the turn I can fold with a clean conscience. I lose the chance to see the river.

My C/R will most likely fold out a weak pair or a suited ace (is JT ever folding here? maybe) or another KQ, so I win all those pots plus the pots I would lose to TAG's bluff bets. Maybe just donking the turn would accomplish the same thing at a cheaper price if it were H/U vs TAG, but Fish is more likely to call me down.

In retrospect I think I agree with the betting-out line. Not betting the flop could have been a mistake but at the time I felt like I'd been firing a lot of dry barrels on missed overcards so I hoped to get more information about where I stood by checking into this particular crowd.

Once it was a single bet back to me on the flop, and down to just Fish and TAG, I thought calling and the turn C/R bluff was the best option left given the player-specific reads, the board, and the great pot odds. It was mostly TAG's abnormally high PFAgg that inspired the bluff attempt.

Perhaps I'm just a moron, look for me soon at a table near you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]