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Old 08-31-2005, 04:08 PM
sthief09 sthief09 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: duffman is thrusting in the direction of the problem (mets are 9-13, currently on a 1 game winning streak)
Posts: 1,245
Default Re: Sample 20/40 hand.

you have a gut shot to a probable winner, he might bluff check-raise, he might not fold a 2 or 3, he very well might have absolutely nothing and bluff the river but fold to a bet, if he has a 10 outer (65) and will bluff the river it's approximately break-even, and he might not value bet a 2 or 3 suspecting you have QQ and won't fold, whcih will save you a bet vs betting the turn and taking a showdown. seems like a textbook check-through planning to call the river

also about him betting the river, first of all if he's value betting only 2/3 of the time you turn a huge profit. if you duck a checkraise by an A, you gave yourself 4 outs. if you duck a checkraise from 2 unpaired hearts, you saved yourself 2/3 of the pot. people don't need an A or a pair, or even a draw to call that flop. it's amazing but it's true.
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