[maddog2030]

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Ok, so let's say the EP raiser is precisely this tight. He raises 4BB in level 2 to 120 chips. Folded to you, 165 in the pot and it's 105 more to go.

There are 12 ways for him to hold QQ or JJ. There are 9 ways for him to have AK (and you are slightly ahead with 6 of them.) There are 6 ways for him to have you dominated by holding AA or KK. So, you are getting better than 3:2 on a preflop call, and you are 6:21 to be dominated.

But if you are dominated, you are only going to pay him off if you make top pair against his set.

On the other hand, if you flop top pair (particularly with a king), there is a reasonable chance that he will pay you off with an underpair (QQ or JJ).

Positional advantage will allow him to win some of the pots when you both have AK... but the fact that you are suited when he is a 3:1 dog to be suited will offset a bit of that, particularly when you both get committed and you are freerolling.

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I did my own quick calculations.

WARNING: These calculations were done at 3am, and very quickly at that. Others have described me as "retarded" as well as "brain dead". So take these numbers for what they're worth. If you find any glaring mistakes, please let me know. Hopefully it won't undermine the whole equation.

Fold: 0 chips

Call and miss: -105 chips (70%)

Because you share some of the cards with a good portion of his range, you are less likely to hit your hand on the flop. Let's estimate it to be 30% to hit an A or K on the flop, though I'd expect it to realistically be slightly lower.

Now to get to the more difficult part:

Call and hit against QQ/JJ (44% of the 30% of the time we hit): +435 chips

This was done assuming you can always get a pot sized bet from the opponent on average. Probably unrealistically high.

Call and hit against AA (11% of the 30% of the time we hit): -500 chips

If you hit an A or K, you are still behind and don't know it OOP. Let's assume you lose half your stack in total here, though this is probably conservatively unrealistic.

Call and hit against KK (11% of the 30% of the time we hit): +200 chips

75% of the time you will hit an Ace and at best get a potsized bet out of him for +435. 25% of the time you will lose 500 of your stack when you hit a King, so overall +200.

Call and hit against AK (33% of the 30% of the time we hit): +25 chips

Assume his position and your suitedness probably near cancel out. Assume you guys split the blinds.

Not very realistic at all. If he's betting hard, it's either going to be AK or AA/KK, so you'd have to often fold to heat or adjust the losing numbers in AA/KK so they are bigger since you are calling down more. Big favorable assumption IMO.

Overall: -25 chips

I think I covered all the big bases. I also think most of the assumptions were overly optimistic. If you disagree with them, then we can adjust them now that everything is setup. But as you can see, as it is, this isn't a profitable play given these assumptions.

The whole problem with this play is there's no where to bluff when you miss, especially acting first, and no real hands to extract real value from (we're completely relying on QQ/JJ and a little from KK to make up our value). Either one, or both, of these things needs to be fulfilled for AK to have real value as a hand.

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Overall, I think that getting better than 3:2 preflop with a hand that draws to the nuts and with which you are not likely to pay off a dominating hand is a favorable situation.

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General comment: I think people generally way overvalue pot odds in no limit preflop when there's postflop poker to be played.

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In fact, I like calling against your villain more than I would against one who would open-raise with more pairs because I can confidently fold more easily when I miss the flop.

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You shouldn't be any less confident. If you miss, the lower pairs are still ahead of you. If he widens his pair range enough then yes you can profitably bluff him off the best hand some of the time, but there's no harm in folding to the best hand when it's not profitable to bluff and not feel confident about it. I didn't do the math so I don't know how wide it has to be to make this true.