[RiverDood]

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Heres something that ive been thinking about, how many numbers do you have to know? By that I mean if you asked me how big of a favorite are you with top two pair over bottom pair and an over card, I probably wouldnt be able to answer that. What I am saying is that I know basic odds like say what are the odds someone makes a flush draw with one card to come, general odds stuff, but nothing crazy. I wonder how much do you have to know to be a long time winner?

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Think of math as a tool kit. You need some basic tools a lot. In home repair, this would be screwdriver, hammer, saw, paint brush, etc.

In poker, this would be odds of hitting a set w/ pocket pair; odds of hitting a flush w/ 4 to the suit after the flop; odds of PP winning vs. two overs, etc. Those types of odds are going to shape your bet/call/check/fold decisions in almost every session.

With the right basic tools, you can do competent work in most situations -- whether that's home repair or poker. What's going to distinguish you in either activity is expertise, patience, a steady hand, good judgment, etc. If you don't have those, you can have 1,000 tools and still make a mess of things.

If you do have good judgment, you probably can make a fine living without a full set of metric Allen wrenches. (Or the poker equivalent.) But if you become a specialized high-end craftsman, you mght want to keep adding to your tool kit -- as the need arises.

I'll offer a specific example. I called a short stack's all-in during a tournament a while back when I was in the BB with A2, even though I thought I was probably behind. I figured his bet was so small that the pot was giving me 2:1 or better odds to play on, and my winning chances were probably 30% or a little higher. My A2 paired and beat his A8, which was nice. After the tournament, I went and ran the numbers on twodimes.net to see that my intuition was basically right.

A few weeks later, I was playing in a ring game and played A2 to the river, headsup on a board with Axx against what turned out to be AJ. I didn't much like my play then and ran the numbers afterward to discover just how thin my draw was. The pot odds didn't begin to justify it.

I'll won't remember either number to three-digit accuracy, because there's no real need to do so. The first play works when the pot offers 2:1 or better. The second play almost never works.