[Shillx]

Here are my thoughts as an NL player:

1) I didn't explain the OP as well as I could have.
2) This hand is totally pointless and the theory is what is important here.
3) I don't really care about anything but the turn play here.

Now to explain...

1a) I don't care about the preflop coldcall. Is 3-betting better here? Yeah probably but the way I play live is different then most of you are used to. I'm sorry that I didn't explain earier.

1b) The flop play is really beyond the scope of this post. It is very complex and probably figures to be thin either way.

2) When the ATM checks the flop, this is what I'm thinking he has (in order)...

a) Unpaired cards with no flush draw
b) Overpair and no flush draw
c) Flush
d) Overs with a flush draw
e) Overpair and a flush draw

His range of hands probably includes hands likes 98s and JTs though I have no idea. I'm also assuming that he is capable of playing any good hand slow on the flop.

3) On the turn I have to worry that I'm either drawing dead or getting freerolled. I also have to consider the two others in the pot. Given the action here, why should I be inclined to raise the turn? Stuff to consider...

a) How often are the both DRAWING DEAD and will call one bet but will fold for 2 bets - I say quite often. If they flopped a pair and have 4 outs then good for them. Any thing else (Kx, Qx or a PP) have just one or two outs against me in this smallish pot. They are making a mistake if they do decide to call with something like 75 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] so even then I don't care if they peel. I don't want any of these hands to go away here. Also, middle clubs will probably call a bet on the turn (drawing dead) but fold for two. Do I really want to get rid of a hand like 98 with a club???

b) How often am I drawing, drawing dead or getting freerolled - A decent % of the time.

c) How often will they fold something that I want to when I raise? - Never. Why do I wan't to drive J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] out of this pot when he is drawing dead? If they do have the A or K of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] they are not going to fold, but it is questionable that a raise gets value since I will be behind to a flush or AA/KK a good % of the time. It is also possible that the PFR will 3-bet a hand that I'm drawing live against so it isn't like I can just muck to a 3-bet here.

I was considering a raise on the river here but decided against it when I consided the fact that I might be behind + the river jack could have improved him.

Brad