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Old 03-08-2004, 07:13 AM
AleoMagus AleoMagus is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Victoria BC
Posts: 252
Default Re: Q for Bozeman/Math types

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i assumed a 30 buyin BR. and cash down to 30 buyins at the end of every month/bimonthly. is this self destructive? will i eventually go bust?

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Well, this gets back to my initial post in this thread

Yes, you might eventually get broke this way.
No, this is not self destructive. It doesn't have to be anyways.

I'm not sure if any winning players on here have ever had a 30 buy-in losing steak. I'd suspect that there aren't many. The fact though, is that you will eventually go broke this way in a long enough time frame. The exact odds at any given time of going on that bad streak would still be extremely small, but eventually, highly improbable things do happen.

But when it does, who cares?

If you cashed off money every two weeks for years, big deal when you finally wipe your roll out (if you ever do). You will still have made plenty. Buy in again and start over. This might appear self-destructive on the surface, but it really makes no mathematical difference on your overall profits. (note: Missed playing in periods of bankroll rebuilding and psychological factors might make a difference). As said in other posts, this only applies to easily replaceable bankrolls. Obviously, if you only play $215 sngs, then this might be a big deal as $6000+ is not easy to replace in a short period of time. Not for many of us anyways.

Still, I would be inclined to at least let your bankroll grow in some small way, especially if you are playing at high stakes. Many recommend only cashing off a percentage of profits. This is not always possible as I am well aware. I was in a situation recently where I had built a bankroll and was playing poker full time. I was not making quite enough to live and each month I actually found that I was cutting into my bankroll. Months passed and my bankroll kept getting smaller despit consistent wins. Like I am saying though, even if I had had a $1,000,000 bankroll it would not have made ANY difference on my overall profits. (except, of course, I could have played at higher limits - though I might have been a big loser in that case)

The point is, I think you only really need enough to keep you in the game long enough to replace your bankroll if you do start running bad. For many this might mean bankroll considerations are meaningless altogether.

I also think that from a psychological perspective, this is the best way to look at it becasue it keep one less focused on your current Bankroll, and more on your profits. What is more important, after all?

Regards,
Brad S
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