View Single Post
  #5  
Old 07-07-2005, 01:08 PM
mdob mdob is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 12
Default Re: AA vs TAG on scary board

Easy call on the river.
Villain's possible hands: AA (1 combination), KK (3), QQ (3), JJ (3), TT (6), AK (3), AQ clubs (1), AQ spades (1)

OK, TT isn't too likely-- say 1 combo; AK-- say 1 combo also; AQ spades-- reduce to 1/2 combo; AA-- reduce to 1/2 combo. I think that's about as pessimistic a view as is reasonable (no discounting AQc, for example). This range gives you 21% equity, or ~ a 1 in 5 chance to win. You only need 1 in 9.5, so it's an easy call. If there's only one combo of AK, TT, AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and half a combo of AA, you'll win 1 in 9.2-- enough to call.

Easy cap if the A falls. He could be reasonably three-betting with KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, KQ, and TT (granting that AQ, KQ, and TT are less likely) thinking you hit two-pair. You do GREAT against that range. There aren't many tens either of you could have.
Reply With Quote