Re: What do you think of this move I made on last hand of tourney.....
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Whether this was a good move depends on the range of hands this player is capable of playing. If he was a random luckbox you almost certainly could have done better.
Obviously you thought he wasn't a random luckbox. So given that assumption you did great assuming the range of hands he might play were solid in a head-up situation.
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The guy had a 1.35:1 chip lead on him going into the hand, with each having between 9.5 and 13BB. He is committed to his hand, unless he wants to be facing a 2.75:1 chip lead. 78s is a 53:47 DOG to a random hand. Let's call it 50/50. The only real sin you can make in HU is being too tight and/or too passive. This guy is correctly pushing with QTo over the top of a bad raise here, so I don't think his play is going to be very exploitable with these stack to blind ratios. We'll say they are even. Here's the EV of the deal (ICM used to calculate non deal EV's)
EV if guy calls and hero wins: ~268
EV if hero folds: ~153
EV taking the deal: 200
EV of OP folding: 153
EV of getting all in here (against a random hand) < 0.5*268 + 0.5*100 = 182.50
For this to be break even for villain, P = chance hero wins, we need:
P*132 + (1-p)*300 = 200
P ~= 59.5
Villain needs to be worse than a 60/40 dog against the range of hands hero would offer this deal with to make this offer good to take. The fact that hero is even offering it suggests this is not the case. (As it was, villain was over a 60% favorite in the hand.)
How does all this relate to psychology? Well, it is very easy to underestimate the value of skill at this phase of a tournament. Luck just domintates these situations.
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Good post. Thanks.
Should my lesson here be that pushing is a much better option than raising to $7K with my 78s? That's what I'm seeing anyway.
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