Re: QQ 55$ PF all in decision
[ QUOTE ]
I do not play at the 55's (I'm at the 11's), so if this is a completely wrong opinion, I apologize in advance.
With no reads and MP2 pushing, I would put his range to TT-AA, AKs-AQs, AK, and maybe AQ (maybe this range is bigger, I'm just starting to learn how to establish ranges.)
In my experience, again at the lower buy-ins, the re-raise from the SB could be an isolation bet with a hand like a 99, TT, JJ, AKs to try and get to pot heads up. The SB could aslo have a monster in AA or KK, but I would think they would simply call instead of pushing.
After punching these numbers into Poker Stove:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.1933 % 42.69% 01.51% { QcQs }
Hand 2: 33.8645 % 31.31% 02.56% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 21.9423 % 19.59% 02.35% { QQ-99, AKs, AKo }
If my math is correct (which it probably isn't), you would need to be getting 1.273:1 odds to call here figuring with the ranges selected you will win 44% of the time.
You have to call 1670 to win 3465, so you are getting 2.07:1 odds. If all of this math is correct and the ranges are accurate, I think this would justify a call.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong...
[/ QUOTE ]
I think your ranges are way too loose at the 55s because MP2 is pushing over a raise, and then SB is pushing over that. Even if one of them is a donk, I'd have to put the other one on either [AA-KK] or [AA-KK, AK]. Not good for Hero.
|