Re: Tough river decision
You are too far from the button to be opening with ATo. Just a few too many people still in the pot that can pick up a hand, and not a lot of flops where you can feel good about playing a big pot.
On the river I want to call because something doesn't smell right. But there's a lot of doubt, especially since the river completed an OESD. If you lose here, that's probably the hand... this line just doesn't look like a set to me. You win if he's on a busted draw or if he's playing really dumb with just a pair of aces. It's hard to assess the chances of each hand playing like that without any feel for how the game is being played.
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