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Old 09-20-2005, 10:31 AM
Nicholasp27 Nicholasp27 is offline
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 93
Default Re: Stop-n-Ramble (long) (I\'m bored)

well let's do some analysis using 66%, even tho it is inaccurate...we'll assume it's decently close though

equity if you fold pf: .2682


66% of the time he folds to your push, so you gain 1550 chips over folding, ev= .3373

33% of the time he calls because he has something: let's say you win 33% of these and lose 66% of these:
you win: you now have doubled up this hand (plus 300 bb), so your ev = .3938
you lose: ev = .0


so it's slightly negative ev to do this instead of just folding

so, how strong of a hand do u need to make this positive? well you need to win more than 1/3 of the times that your opp hits a calling hand (which could be a drawing hand, so pps should win more than 1/3...)

.2682-.222618=.045582= what you need ev*p(w|c) to be


so you need a hand that is >35% after the flop against the range of hands he's calling (oes, flush draws, pair, two pair, boat, etc)

so that's the next step...figuring out what pf holdings will be >35% against a random hand after the flop, given that the random hand hits something that meets your criteria
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