Re: Stop-n-Ramble (long) (I\'m bored)
ok, here is my stab at getting the odds of him folding post flop (it's roughly 2-1 that he will fold using your assumptions)
now, i didn't do all the precise math (left out 1-gap, 2-gap,3-gap connectors but i also didn't say that if his 72 pairs the 2 on the flop that he'd fold, so hopefully it'll close to even itself out [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )
suited:
odds he has suited pf: .24
odds he hits 2 more of that suit: .109
odds he hits flush on flop: .0084
.24(.109)+.24(.0084)=.02616+.002016=.028176
so 2.8% of the time this occurs
pocket pair:
odds he has pp pf: .059
odds he improves to set or better on flop: .118
.059(.118)=.006962
so .7% of the time this occurs
let's also say that the (1-.118)% of the time that 99+ doesn't improve, he still calls your s-n-g
.027(1-.118)=.023814
so 2.4% of the time this occurs
connectors that can make straight fully in either direction (54 - jt):
odds he has this pf: .085
odds it improves to straight on flop: .013
odds it becomes oes: .096
.085(.013) + .085(.096) = .001105 + .00816 = .009265
so .9% of the time this occurs
the rest of the time:
odds of holding pf: .616
odds of improving to a pair on flop: .29
odds of improving to two pair: .02
odds of improving to trips: .0135
odds of improving to boat: .0009
odds of improving to quads: .0001
.616(.29) + .616(.02) + .616(.0135) + .616(.0009) + .616(.0001)= .17864+.01232+.08316+.0005544+.0000616=.274736
total odds of not folding on flop: .342953
odds of folding on flop: .657047
so roughly 2-1...
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