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#4
09-20-2005, 10:07 AM
 Nicholasp27 Member Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 93
Re: Stop-n-Ramble (long) (I\'m bored)

ok, here is my stab at getting the odds of him folding post flop (it's roughly 2-1 that he will fold using your assumptions)

now, i didn't do all the precise math (left out 1-gap, 2-gap,3-gap connectors but i also didn't say that if his 72 pairs the 2 on the flop that he'd fold, so hopefully it'll close to even itself out [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] )

suited:

odds he has suited pf: .24
odds he hits 2 more of that suit: .109
odds he hits flush on flop: .0084

.24(.109)+.24(.0084)=.02616+.002016=.028176

so 2.8% of the time this occurs

pocket pair:

odds he has pp pf: .059

odds he improves to set or better on flop: .118

.059(.118)=.006962

so .7% of the time this occurs

let's also say that the (1-.118)% of the time that 99+ doesn't improve, he still calls your s-n-g

.027(1-.118)=.023814

so 2.4% of the time this occurs

connectors that can make straight fully in either direction (54 - jt):

odds he has this pf: .085

odds it improves to straight on flop: .013

odds it becomes oes: .096

.085(.013) + .085(.096) = .001105 + .00816 = .009265

so .9% of the time this occurs

the rest of the time:

odds of holding pf: .616

odds of improving to a pair on flop: .29

odds of improving to two pair: .02

odds of improving to trips: .0135

odds of improving to boat: .0009

odds of improving to quads: .0001

.616(.29) + .616(.02) + .616(.0135) + .616(.0009) + .616(.0001)= .17864+.01232+.08316+.0005544+.0000616=.274736

total odds of not folding on flop: .342953

odds of folding on flop: .657047

so roughly 2-1...