Re: flush probabilities all in
you will make a flush with suited cards when the board has 3, 4, or 5 of your suit. you can compute each of those possibilities and add:
C[11,3]C[39,2] / C[50,5] = 5.77059%
+ C[11,4]C[39,1] / C[50,5] = 0.60743%
+ C[11,5]C[39,0] / C[50,5] = 0.02181%
-----------------------------------------
6.39983%
pretty close to Sklansky's number...
from twodimes.net, the straight-up chances for A9s to beat AKo:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 9h 483500 28.24 1152589 67.31 76215 4.45 0.305
As Kd 1152589 67.31 483500 28.24 76215 4.45 0.695
so, you will win or tie about 1/3 of the time you are all-in with A9s vs. AKo, and your opponent doesn't hold the K of your suit...
-switters
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