[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
ok here's one really nasty thing you couldve done on this hand to induce the laydown:

flat call the turn raise and donk bet the river. that might do the trick. the turn 3 bet in a c/o-bb steal war just screams desperation. it puts it in the realm of okay either this guy has noticed i make laydowns and he's bluffing or he's got the nuts. takes the pressure off and makes calling down easy.

but the smooth call/donk bet says to him, "i have something and ive had something the whole time, and i think youre fos and weak enough to pay me off", that will embarass a young guy into folding enough i believe, meaning he'll be too embarassed to "pay you off" there.


[/ QUOTE ]

ggbman suggested that as well, and I think it is a similarly good line - I just think the psychological aspect of having to call 2 more bets would weigh more on *me personally* which is why I assume others feel the same way. I think it's probably player dependent as to which line will induce the fold more often - your reasoning is sound if the opponent is thinking that way, but against weaker opponents I will be more inclined to call with marginal hands on the river in situations like you describe because I so often see desperation bet outs on missed draws(the spades in this example).

Another way I think about it is this. Let's say I post a hand where I raise on the button with A8o(or maybe even ATo). The BB who is a young player who seems solid enough but who hasn't gotten out of line calls the bb. The flop is T83 with 2 spades, and he check-raises. I decide to raise any turn for a free showdown if it's scary or for straight value. The turn is a jack, and now there are a lot of hands he'll call with if I raise but maybe won't pay off a value bet on the river, so I raise. Woops, he three-bets. I have the odds to try to improve to two pair or better so I call. The river bricks - he bets out and I fold. Or maybe I call and he shows JT and I feel like a fool. Either way, a lot of plans to raise the turn can go haywire(especially when an overcard hits) and being able to raise or reraise without the best hand from time to time can't be a horrible image to have.
-James