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Old 12-20-2005, 12:16 PM
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Default Re: 10/20 (6) Datamine Confusion

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He's folding way too much. WtSD only 31.6. Accounts for the higher W$SD and the losses.

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Thanks Rob,

After you said this, I looked at his folded to river bet and saw 47.6%! I am still surprised by the logic inconsistencies....and wondering how it's possible for someone reasonable enough to play everything else (VPIP, PFR, Folded SB & BB to steal, ASB, W$WSF) so close to optimally, yet fold THAT many winners on the end.

IMO, no one would play that masochistically unless they're trying to lose.

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These are almost precisely my stats, though my BB/100 is on the plus side. I fold too often. I'm working on seeing more showdowns, but I have a hard time seeing the showdown when I get check/raised on the turn when I've got AJ that missed. I'm trying to play cheap (1/2, 2/4) HU sessions to get more familiarity with playing missed/weak hands.

I'm guessing this player is normally a .5BB/100 type winner an he's having a bad run. Last night, first 3 hands I flopped trips, trips, nut straight, only to lose each time to a runner/runner. Those 3 hands put me nearly 20BB hole right off the bat. When you're a .5BB/100 winner, a sequence like that can put you in the hole for a loooonnnnggggg time.

Variance sucks.
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