[hobbsmann]

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we a) might have the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]Might - being the opperative word. You've got two villians already liking their hands and two still to act.

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ok so we agree.

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b) have a big draw when behind

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agreed. But have you added value by 3betting. I definitely don't think fold equity is a concern at this point.

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ok, we agree


I'm not going to quote the rest of your post, but I have some comments in general. First, the times we are behind our equity in this pot is going to be somewhere in the range of 25-30% depending on hand ranges for our opponents. Since 3-betting is almost a neutral EV situation to begin with. This means that we only need to be ahead a small portion of the time or get somebody behind us (including sb) to fold a J, a 7, or overcard(s) a small portion of the time.

Maybe tomorrow I'll run some calcs, but really when I say 'small' I'm guessing less then 10% and given that both seperately increase our equity from the neutral EV case, we are talking about not being behind like 5% of the time to make this a profitable 3-bet. So yeah I stand by my east 3-bet claim.