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Old 12-12-2005, 10:18 AM
Dazarath Dazarath is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 185
Default Re: Creating Odds f or yourself with draws

1) Wrong forum.
2) Pumping a draw in a -EV manner to make your calldown +EV is not +EV in the situation you described. That's like saying, in NL, you should always raise to (your stack size) - 1 BB, so that on the flop, you have odds to call, even if you need to runner runner trips to win.
3) Your roommate should quit poker.. or give me his screenname.

Here's some math to show you why:
Let's make a few assumptions first, to simplify things. Your opponent will not pay you off if you make your flush, so your implied odds are exactly 0. You need to make your flush to win, so your overcards are not outs and you have 0 fold equity. The chance of hitting your flush is 1/5 on the turn and 1/5 on the river.

Ok, say the pot is 3.5 SBs. Your opponent bets, laying you 4.5:1. You need 4:1 for a breakeven call, so the call is +EV. You win 4.5 SBs once for every 4 times you miss and lose 1 SB. 4.5 SB - 4 * 1 SB = 0.5 SB, which your EV on the call. When you miss, the pot is now 5.5 SB on the turn, or 2.75 BB. When your opponent bets again, you're getting 3.75:1 on your money, so you have to fold.

Now, let's say you cap the flop instead. The pot is still 3.5 SBs. So now you're putting in 4 SB to win 7.5 SB. If you miss, on the turn (pot is now 11.5 SB or 5.75 BB), your opponent bets again, so you're getting 6.75:1 on your money. You now call.
1/5 of the time, you win 7.5 SB on the flop.
4/5 of the time, you miss on the turn and cost yourself 4 SBs, then:
1/5 (out of that 4/5) you hit on the river and win 6.75 BB
4/5 (out of that 4/5) you miss and lose 1 BB

So your EV is (1/5 * 7.5) + (4/5 * -4) + (1/5 * 4/5 * 6.75 * 2) + (4/5 * 4/5 * -1 * 2) = -0.82 SB
The last two are doubled to put everything in terms of SBs.
Someone check my math, I'm not sure if I did it correctly.

The point is, you're costing yourself too much in EV on the flop, and you're not gaining enough back on the turn/river. This is in a situation where you only have a flush draw. If you have a draw that's strong enough, pumping the flop can actually be +EV, because your chance of winning is huge. Something like a flush draw + a straight draw + live overcards.
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