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Old 04-17-2004, 04:42 PM
talkinghead talkinghead is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 37
Default Re: Calling a flop bet with a small pocket pair

In this instance I would completely ignore implied odds and call or fold based on the pot odds of making my hand on the turn. (17 to 1 so fold).
The reason being, you are not going to win the hand 100% of the time when you do catch your 4, if someone has 55, 88, AA, or 67s you're beaten already, they could be playing 66, 77 and catch the str8 card on the river, or your four could put a two flush on the board which then is completed on the river. Many other possibilities like A8s outdrawing you on the river, or pkt 10's or J's spiking their miracle set exist, if any of the above happen you're gonna lose a lotta chips.
In these situations I cancel out the implied odds with the chance that i'll make my hand and still lose (to simplify things) and make the call based on the pot odds only. It's certainly a waste of chips to call here.
No computer simulation to back this up but i'd estimate, based on experience that when you hit your 4 with 3 other players still in there they will only be good 75% of the time. There's gonna be some capped rounds when you're beaten and no guarantee of such action when you're not.
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