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Old 12-06-2005, 06:03 AM
M.B.E. M.B.E. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Vancouver, B.C.
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Default Re: Why Two Dimes Data Is Wrong (Continued...)

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I mean that in ‘the holdem way of thinking’, when you win the pot, you win the whole pot. Essentially, you scoop everytime that you win. But in O8 you don’t.

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Obviously.

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And it has everything to do with twodimes, because depending on how many bets are still to be put in the pot and how many opponent you have scooping is often worth more than twice splitting and can sometimes be worth as much as 7x more in profit (and that has nothing to do with driving the betting, but instead is due to the fact that every bet you put in will at best return half of it to you).

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Twodimes already accounts for this. That's the point that you aren't getting, but I will try to explain by exploring your example.

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My point is that how you think about pot odds needs to be very different in O8 than in holdem. In holdem you always get the bets you put in back so its straightforward. Not so in split pot, as half the bet you put in goes to the other guy.

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I agree. Again, this is obvious.

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Let's take a simple example. You're the button in a pretty tight game. The cutoff seat immediately to your right bets and you call.

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I assume you mean the cutoff raises.

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The small blind calls and the big blind folds. So there are 7 small bets in the pot. On the flop, the cutoff bets, you call, and SB folds, so there are 9 small bets in the pot. On the turn those 9 small bets equal 4.5 big bets, and cutoff bets and you call so there are 6.5 big bets in the pot. On the river, cutoff bets and you call so there are now 8.5 big bets in the pot. So if you scoop, you win 8.5 big bets, and if you get half, you win 4.25 bets.. Now of those 8.5 big bets in the pot, you put in 2 small bets preflop, 1 small bet on the flop, 1 big bet on the turn and 1 more on the river. That's a total of 3.5 big bets.
So, let's recap:
If you scoop, you win 8.5 big bets, minus the 3.5 big bets you put in yourself, for a profit of 5.0 big bets.
If you split, you win 4.25 big bets, minus the 3.5 big bets you put in yourself, for a profit of 0.75 big bets.

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I agree, so far.

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That is a HUGE difference! In that example, scooping is 6 to 7 times more profitable than splitting the pot!!!

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I can see what you mean by this statement but I find it misleading in the context of this discussion because you haven't considered the probability of losing.

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If this was holdem, you would be putting in 3.5 big bets for the chance to win 5.0 big bets. But if this is O8 and your opponent was freerolling you, then you’re putting in 3.5 big bets for the chance to win 0.75 bets. Even tho in both of these scenario’s your twodimes equity could be 25%.

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What you are overlooking is this: if my "twodimes equity" in both cases is 25%, then in the first case there is a much bigger chance I will lose 3.5 big bets than in the second case.

Let's go back to preflop, before I call my opponent's raise. In Situation A, let's say that someone watching me play the hand somehow knows what the betting action will be throughout the hand and also knows that I have a 25% probability to scoop and a 75% probability to lose (with 0% probability of splitting). Now based on that person's knowledge, what is my EV of playing the hand? 25% of the time I profit 5.0 big bets, and 75% I lose 3.5 big bets, so my EV is -1.375 big bets.

To make this absolutely clear, I arrived at the -1.375 like this:

(0.25 x 5.0) + (0.75 x (-3.5)) = -1.375

Now go to Situation B, where the person observing knows somehow that I have 0% chance to scoop, but a 50% chance to win half the pot and a 50% chance to lose completely. So 50% of the time I win 0.75 big bets and 50% of the time I lose 3.5 big bets. So my EV is:

(0.5 x 0.75) + (0.5 x (-3.5)) = -1.375

So in both situations from your own example my EV is exactly the same: -1.375 big bets.
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