Re: I Still Can\'t Do It : 77 UTG
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I find myself rethinking the math and trying to find a way where I can be justified in calling here.
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Can you explain why the math says you shouldn't call here? It looks like a very easy call to me.
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do the math with the probability that villian has a set at 95%. that is the underestimate. using 5% of the straight outs + 4*3/7 (both 5s and 7s when villian has 44) + 2*3/7 (both sevens when villian has 66) + 0*1/7 (hero is dead to 55) we see that its STILL a fold getting about 15:1 + implied odds. best case scenario hero earns about 6 bets on the river from checkraising the bettor and callers assuming they dont fold AND call the c'r...thats alot of iffs. average implied odds here probably add 3 bets maybe 4 or 4.5 to the immediate pot odds. AND!!! this assumes that you FOLD when you hit a straight. if you DO NOT fold when you hit your straight, then you must 100% not call ever. this is why i made 95% villian set probability 100% because the value of those outs is actually negative (reverse implied odds) if you hit and plan to call.
its a fold. but again, a fairly close one, especially if you discount reverse implied odds by negating straight outs.
-Barron
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