[MarkD]

I had a hand very similar to this that I have been meaning to post so I am quite curious as to the responses here.

I currently think that you should check the turn which I think accomplishes two things:

1) It greatly increases your likelihood of collecting 1BB the times that you are ahead. I would guestimate that you average 0.9BB's when you are ahead on the turn and check. I would guestimate that you average 0.5BB's the times that you are ahead and bet the turn.

The times that you are ahead on the turn and bet you will usually collect 2BB's but I think that you get played with a very low percentage of the time (less than 25% in my estimate).

2) It saves you money when you are behind. When you are behind you will usually get check raised, or will certainly get called on both the turn and river so I think you lose 2-3BB's in this situation (you bet the turn AND you are behind). So, by checking the turn you save a minimum of 1BB.

ps. your specific hand is different than mine (which I have been meaning to post) since in your hand both the A and K of trump our out so it is less likely that you are beat.