Re: Easy Fold, Right?
The problem here is the lockup on the board makes this a very easy checkraise with Ax versus a PFR. Villain has a very high probability of having at least the chop in hand and there are many pocket pairs, queen hands, and draws that will pay off.
It's easy to look at the guy's stats and sneer but it doesn't tell us what we need to know. Some tight/passives are terrible. Others have a really good eye for cards and good hand reading skills. They are just timid about committing money before they see most of the cards and/or they enjoy trapping people.
It's common for these players' stats to show a clear progression of increasing aggression on each successive street. They gain confidence as they figure out who has the best hand and begin counterattacking.
If you think this guy can play then you need to call him down. If he's a dunce or an all-street nutpeddler then give it up. But an AF of 1.2 is quite a bit for a player who habitually assumes a passive position before the flop. It says to me that he may actually be pretty aggressive on the big streets.
Based on the information provided this is a close decision. Folding is OK.
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