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Old 04-01-2005, 09:32 AM
BadBoyBenny BadBoyBenny is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 66
Default Re: Non self weighting stock market strategies

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There is a problem in my opinion with comparing the stock market with other forms of gambling. First off the stock market is not a zero sum game like other forms of gambling. There is not a loser for every winner.

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This is sometimes true, the reasons someone are selling an individual security and the reason someone else is buying it are often very different, but I would contend that most of the time one of the people involved in the transaction will come out the loser.

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Secondly if you believe the market effeciently prices securities (of which their has been reams of academic proof) then there is no gain from looking for mis-priced securities.

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This is true IF you believe in efficient markets. I would like to see these reams of proof as my understanding is that efficient market theory is still considered controversial. I believe the markets are efficient to a certain extent but not completely efficient.

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Lastly, over 90% of professional money managers have failed to beat the stock market averages over the long run. These are professionals with more experience and resources than you and I and still their performace as a whole has been dismal.

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Just because they are professionals doesn't mean that they are better at anlyzing a business than you or I. Also, they have regulations either from the government or the funds they run that put them at a disadvantage to the individual investor.

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All of this would lead one to conclude the best stock market strategy with the best EV would be no load index funds rather than a selection of a handful of stocks.

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For most people I would agree. I don't think most people have the time or the will to be successful at buying individual securities.

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But it is still my belief that most investors would be well advised to invest in a manner to approximate market averages rather than taking abnormal risks for below market expectations.

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Once again I agree, but the key word here is most. Most people should seek an average and comparatively safe return because the gamble on one's retirement is simply to big to add in unecessary risk. Kepp in mind that most people are also better off never playing Poker because the average player ends up losing money. A lot of the same reasons would apply.
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