[Thoth]

Just bought SNGPT last weekend and was looking through some hand histories. The result on this one really surprised me:

NL Texas Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:18422058 Level:9 Blinds(250/500) - Monday, December 19, 17:20:53 EDT 2005
Table Table 67328 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: gushkatif ( $780 )
Seat 8: TPAKTOP_74 ( $5140 )
Seat 9: Thoth73 ( $1010 )
Seat 10: hgondorff3 ( $1070 )
Trny:18422058 Level:9
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Thoth73 [ Js 8s ]
hgondorff3 folds.
gushkatif folds.
TPAKTOP_74 is all-In [4890]

I thought this was a really easy call. Getting 3-1, not a complete junk hand and only 1BB left when I fold of which I have to post 1/2 in the SB next hand.

Then I ran it through SNGPT giving SB the most loose range (of the 4 standard ones given) and get this:

Call hands: 44+,A5o+,A2s+,KTo+,K9s+ (21%)
range SB: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s
EV diff:-2.2% (-$6.72)

So an obvious fold, getting even more obvious when you make his range a little more tight.
Apparently having the other short stacks there makes this a fold eventhough I'm the first one that will be forced to go allin.