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Old 06-29-2005, 09:15 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 197
Default Re: Post Flop odds calculations

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If I didn't think that it was going to get raised, would I be more correct to put it at ~14:3?

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honestly try not to look at a chart or anything. thinking that it's 14:3 is making life complicated, and it's basically making too many assumptions. you don't know if it won't get raised, you don't know how many callers you're going to get, etc. etc.

let's simplify things. let's make you last to act getting 14:1 on a flop call, and you know SB to be very tight, so much so that you are definitely drawing to 2 outs against him.

you need to look at your odds to hit one of your outs on the turn, and you need to figure in implied odds here, meaning how many bets will you be able to make up if you call without the proper immediate odds. the odds to hit one of two outs on the turn is 45/2, or 22.5:1. you will need to make up ~9 sb on the turn and river if you hit.

depending on your relative position and how many (and how loose) players are trapped between the preflop raiser and you, this may be possible.

if it were heads up, this would be a fold, because you would only get those 9 sb if he had KK and had you drawing nearly dead on the flop.

i could go on, but i think that explains it.
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