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Old 12-28-2005, 02:40 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 12
Default Re: Was this preflop push with AK too agressive?

There's not much else to say. Given you've got a read to eliminate AA, you're only a significant dog to KK. Every other hand he could have you are either a small dog or a favorite. With your suited cards, you are at worst a 54:46 dog, but you're getting 56:40 odds (maybe fudge slightly down to account for the slim chance he has KK). If he would ever call with a dominated hand here (AQ) then that just helps all the more.

You're 35% to make a pair on the flop about, and the post is offering you 2.6:1 to call, which means calling is a mistake unless you have implied odds, and I'm not sure that you have good implied odds. If an A or a K hits, it will be hard to make money. Plus since you don't know what he's on, if the board comes, say AJ2, AT6, AQ4, A98 and you end up getting a lot of action, you might be a dog in the hand.

A push guarantees you're getting an edge. Yes, you got your money in with the worst of it, but the pf raise was mandatory, and the blinds are now big enough relative to your stack sizes that when reraised it has already become a mistake to throw the hand away, and smooth calling presents its own set of problems in addition to being a -EV call taken on its own.
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