[Pov]

Well you bring up a good point. In my calculations above I only let people call with a very narrow range of hands. When a maniac is making silly plays frequently, people loosen up just like you said and they will start to make silly plays also. If this is the 3rd time he's made this move, you'll start to see a lot of hands call. He'll still be an underdog to them on average but his winning percentage (when called) will creep up as the other players loosen up their calling requirements. Assuming they're all calling with hands > 51% though, he's destined to lose since the blinds are only $3 compared to his $280 bet.

Notice that you can actually make his play correct if you increase the blinds sufficiently so the blind steal is bigger than what he loses on average when called. Of course to do so would also make it much more likely he'd get called and by multiple hands so it's really a moot point, but worthy of consideration nonetheless.

I'm really not *that* heavily into the math either believe it or not, but it's good to run some numbers on things from time to time so you can more fully understand some of the underlying principles of the game. Knowing a play is wrong is good, but knowing why it is wrong is better since you'll be more likely to recognize similar situations that aren't quite as clear cut. There are many situations in poker where it turns out plays that just seem really wrong are obviously correct once you understand them.


edit: clarity and last paragraph