[BluffTHIS!]

I think your statement about 100 years ago is in error, as there were major technological changes, relative to what they had before in each previous decade, although not as great a leap perhaps as the pace of technological progress now. And I think your 20% figure for back then is generous.

But it is clear that you are right that the pace of technology means that there will never again be true (I hate to use this cliched term) "Renaissance Men", that is those who have a fundamental grasp of all areas of science and mathematics. The width and depth is just too large for one man to master. But even today, a Nobel laureate in mathematics or physics is unlikely to have spent the time to have an excellent knowledge of transitors, medical biology, or other fields outside his own expertise. He certainly is smart enough to understand them if he would spend the effort, it just is that it is more productive to specialize and have a depth of knowledge in one or two fields, than to have a shallower knowledge of many. There are of course exceptions regarding those who manage technologies for enterprises and such, who don't need a detailed knowledge, but do need to be conversant about a range in order to make production and resource allocation decisions.

The pace of computer technology is one of the best examples of all of this. I owned one of the first micro-computers to come out, an Apple II, and had a good programming ability back then in various computer languages (which today aren't widely used). Back then, my computer knowledge was significantly above that of the average person, whether he owned a computer or not. Now, virtually everyone knows how to use a computer because of the ease of use of graphical user interfaces which make it no longer necessary to need to know comand line operating system procedures. And even though I am not up to speed in the programming procedures of today, I do read magazines and net articles to keep up on the general technologies, and so am still above the average user. And I know where to go to for expert knowledge if I need it as I occasionally do.

The point of your question though, is what is the psychological impact upon people, even very smart ones, who will be able to use various technologies, but not really have a grasp of how they work. This will be true across every type of common technology we use. One only has to look at automotive technology to see that the day of the shade tree mechanic is over, not because necessarily he can't understand the technology, but because the tools needed to work on it are so specialized and expensive that it does not pay to do so for just oneself. And we live in a frustrating time where it is cheaper to throw away many defective products, than to fix them, even assuming a willingness and knowledge to do so.

So the thinking person is going to have to be content with having a shallow knowledge of most areas, while specializing in one or two. And he will have to trust the opinions of experts in other fields in order to know both what technologies should be used and how, but also to make political decisions regarding the impact of such technologies (one only has to look at the debate over global warming to see this and competing scientific viewpoints).

Even though there might be a certain amount of psychological frustration in all levels of society over an inability to comprehend the workings of everyday gadgets, those people will likely still just count it a plus to be able to have those gadgets. And the internet will provide even as it does now, an easy way to tap expert knowledge when needed. The computer technical forum here is a very good example of that, even thoough it is low level compared to other internet computer technical forums.

Look at the average man, and even the well educated man of 100 years ago. He had seen in the previous decades the growing use of electricity, natural gas heat, and railroads. He was about to see the emergence of automobiles and airplanes. He might not have understood all of that, but nonetheless was content with a better quality of life afforded by being able to use them. I think that in the future it will be the same.