[Spicymoose]

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What are your weightings for their likely hands? If you figure you are ahead of MP who has AK/AT, on the turn he has a minimum of 13 outs to beat you, and possibly more if he has flush cards.

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I don't mind that he has a ton of outs, the pot is huge, and unless he tells me otherwise, I am staying in.


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He could already be ahead of you with 99/TT.

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I already have discussed these, and I don't think they are very likely given the flop action. Maybe he plays these hands like this 20% of the time?

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You could even throw in a bit of a possibility of JJ/QQ trying to slowplay

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I doubt he is slowplaying past the turn, but I guess it is possible. There are 4 combos total, and I weigh him playing like this less than 25%, so call it 1 combo.

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or AJ who is scared of the Q.

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On the flop, this is likely, once we reach the turn, and he doesn't raise, far, far less likely.

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There is also button who may have a weak Q, or 99/TT, or just made his trips - none of those are going anywhere in most cases. He could also have a flush draw or straight draw which has a ton of outs against you. Unless he bet the flop with complete air (which is unlikely for an LP), or a 6, I highly doubt he will fold the turn in most cases.

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You are right, the button is my main cause for concern. I am hoping he bet with air or a flush draw, which he may do a reasonable amount of the time. He may be passive, but the pot is big, and noone has shown interest on the flop.