Re: AA - Interesting Flop
Wow...tough flop!
I think this is an easy laydown. Tough to do, but really, what are the odds you're ahead right now?
You raise to 400 preflop and both the button and UTG smooth call you. Why UTG doesn't move all in here, I don't know...
After the flop, let's not worry about UTG...doesn't matter what he has...if you were just up against him you're flop bet put him all-in, so what he has is irrelevant - either you win the pot or he does.
But the Button...let's break this down...he smooth calls your pre-flop bet...so either he's got AK or a PP that didn't warrant a re-raise...so unless he's the type to slow-play AA or KK, he more than likely has JJ or QQ...I guess it's possible he has a lower PP and he wants to see a flop...but that's an awfully expensive call for less than a premium hand.
I put him on JJ or QQ.
On the flop you make a weak stab at a 1300 pot with 200...that was your first mistake...because now the Button moves all-in and he could literally have anything at this point - maybe he flopped a straight, 2 pair, a set - or is just betting you're going to lay it down after such a weak bet.
Now the UTG calls all-in...again, not really that big a deal, but still...he must have some of that flop, right? I think it's 50-50 you're ahead of UTG at this point.
But you're faced with putting almost all of your stack at risk now because of the Button's bet.
What could he have that you are ahead of? You've already said he's TAG...so....
AQ? But if he's a TAG, he folds this pre-flop without a thought.
TT - although how he smooth calls a 400 bet pre-flop with TT is beyond me...if he's really a TAG, he either folds this or comes over the top of you pre-flop.
QJ, KJ,KQ, AT...I don't think he's smooth calling with these hands, either. But if he is, you're still beat.
I guess it's possible he has AA or KK but again, you've stated he's a TAG and a TAG would almost definitely come over the top of you pre-flop with one of these hands.
That leaves us with only one hand that he could reasonably have that you're ahead of at this point - AK.
So basically, there's three hands you could reasonably assume he's going to smooth call you with pre-flop - AK,
QQ, JJ...I guess it's up to you to decide whether or not you think it's worth calling your whole stack on the possibility he has AK and nothing else...
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hope this helps!
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