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Old 12-29-2005, 12:16 AM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 412
Default Re: JT flops pair + OESD near the bubble

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You have a strong draw here. You have to push. with a pair plus open ended, how do you determine what is a better hand.

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It's not a strong draw when two pair puts 4 to the straight on the board. I'd give him credit for 10 outs and that's probably generous.

The call pre-flop is bad for exactly the reasons why you're having a tough time with this hand. Your out of position with a draw and can't figure out what to do. If you think you can steal the pot with a raise, okay. I doubt that'll work often enough at this buy-in to make it worthwhile. And if you're going to do that it really doesn't matter what you have. To me this is a clear fold 90% of the time or more.

Disclaimer: I've never played a $2 MTT so I'm not sure if this point is valid. But you make a 1/2 pot sized bet into a pretty draw heavy board after limping UTG. I'm not even sure I'd play AA/KK like that. Seems week to me and if I had chips I'd raise you with nothing.

I don't think you've got the pot odds to call. Even the implied odds aren't great as if you make your straight I think the action is dead. It's push or fold. If you push you're risking 8200 to win 13000. If you have 10 outs you're about 1.86 to 1 to improve by the river. You're not quite getting good enough odds so a fold is correct unless you think he'll fold to a push, which I don't.
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