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This seems fairly sensible; but you said you had 10 hands w/them (IIRC) so
really you have no idea what your worst outs are (IMO).
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Yeah, I do. 95% of the time a two-card flush (i.e. a flush that uses both of your hole cards) is going to be good, so until that third
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W/all due respect, IMO no you don't; I'm not sure you're following what I'm getting at: I have one and only one overriding thought here - the flop pot was plenty large to try winning right from the start. And that's all that's on my mind
So as simply as I can put it, IMO c-r flop means you have now virtually guaranteed that you MUST hit the fl to win. You have foregone what was already a great pot and (I'm assuming) tossed out any other options, locking yourself into a must-hit draw by tying everyone to the pot.
Consider the unk but assumed 3-out gutshots; betting into utg and praying for a raise, folding any of them is huge because if you hit your J's you're now not losing to their str. Tying them to the pot means that option is gone.
Consider the 45o idiot that isn't going anywhere now because he's put so much in the pot; he could conceivably hit a 4 or 5 and win; IMM ANY hand is a threat with a pot this large; folding them is an option now gone.
What I have the problem with is instead of having the fl as a backup if you cannot win the already large pot w/a lesser hand, IMO tying everyone to it right from the start makes hitting the fl your ONLY option.
I'm going to catch a lot of [censored] for this but IMM helps demonstrate my point; we're not talking about highly skilled, extremely clever players here; they're morons and I don't discount anything happening at $1/2 (and I expect to be called a moron after posting this hand):
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed)
FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Preflop: Hero is MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, <font color="#666666">
1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.
Flop: (13 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds.
Final Pot: 7 BB
Some ppl (maybe most/all) think betting flop is stupid; but IMO there is no other option on a 3-way pf capped pot - it's too big. I can either give up w/o even trying, get cute, etc., but I had 0 chance to win by checking and IMO is easily worth a 1 sb stab.
So the chance of folding pf aggressors is not 0; it isn't high, but it's not 0. My point is that assuming you're against awesome hands and fl is only alternative is I think a mistake. And, IMO, the likelihood of a lesser hand for you winning a 10bb+ flop pot by playing aggressively to eliminate instead of trying to make a huge pot even larger is FAR from 0.
What hands can be eliminated? Who knows; but my point is that you have thrown out right from the start any other possibility other than the flush. All I'm getting at is locking yourself into a must-hit draw is too extreme when the pot was big to begin with...
Mike