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Old 12-09-2005, 07:53 PM
locutus2002 locutus2002 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 469
Default Re: ATs...J4o...What does it matter???

This is a pretty bad situation for a resteal without an expectation that CO will fold.

I think Adanthar's comment about folding ATs if the 2K bet was not CO's standard raise is poignant.

If 2K is CO's standard raise then I think ATs in Billyjex situation is an easy push.
Hero is well ahead of CO's range.
Any raise will pot commit hero.
Hero has good equity against the range of hands that call.
(36% against AT++,77++)
Hero has FE from his image (clearly if villain is considering folding AJs, then his range for hero must be pretty narrow).

It's a little to early to consider $EV, although 27K (case where CO calls and hero wins) represents about 15% of the chips in play and has equity.

I doubt the push is EV-, but at the same time I doubt if its EV+ by more than 1/2XBB if you exclude the FE.

Your numbers are greatly influenced by the opening range for CO. 1.5-2.0 times per orbit is maniacal in a 6 handed game (only 4 1/2 positions to open from). There is also a big difference between 6 handed and 8 handed.

I estimate that a typical TAG opening range from the CO will call you 33% of the time (not 23%).

Opening range: All broadway, pairs down to 5s, aces down to a5. ~300 hands
Calling range: AT++, 77++. ~112 hands.

Take into account hero has AT and CO's # hands change for the same range.

Opening range: ~250
Calling range: ~90

Villain calls with ~36% of his hands.
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