[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your problem here is your flop decision to re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I'll try to explain that one.

I have 1600 chips and set, I'm not folding to the initial flop action. I don't care if the board's J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

When it's 175 to me the best I'm giving anyone credit for is AQ. They might have more, but I don't have any reason to assume they do. Their range of hands is huge. There are so many pair+draw/draw/2-pair/tptk hands in addition to the hands I'm behind. I think there's an argument to be made for flat-calling the flop to see what the SB does, but there is the fact that I don't want to see about half the deck on the turn. I definitely don't like a fold the first time action comes to me on the flop.

If I flat call, the SB reraises and MP1 pushes it's a clear fold. That's basically the argument for the call. But if I call the flop and so does SB, then I'm left in an ugly spot on the turn. (600 in pot, they'd each have about 8-900 behind with me covering them.)

If a spade, K, J, or 8 comes on the turn, the SB checks and MP1 bets I have to fold because of the threat of a check-raise. If instead SB bets and MP1 calls I may have a call as well, depending on the odds being given to me. But how about on a blank turn? If it blanks and MP1 bets into me, I still can't be too happy calling with the SB acting behind me. I don't think he'd flat-call the flop with a hand that beat me, but there's some chance he would call the flop waiting for a "safe" turn to get his chips in. That's particularly plausible given that he'd be in perfect position to check-raise there. So, if I flat-call I'm basically hoping for 1 of 2 things: SB re-re-raise and MP1 push, or SB call and everyone checks to me on the turn. I see the second as happening about 0.5% of the time, but the first's much more likely. I'm just not sure it's likely enough to be best.

My re-raising the flop makes them define their hands, and it prevents me from having to act between MP1 and SB on the turn. I suppose I could raise less, although my raise here is only about 1/2 pot. The above reasoning is basically what made me raise the flop. (At the time it was simplified to "let's see how much they like those hands because I don't want to be clueless on the turn.")

Damn. I should have posted this hand in 2 parts.