[JFB37]

I think this is a very interesting subject, one that is being discussed in many threads. It is interesting, because there is no clear answer and people have legitimate different opinions.

Let's look at some numbers. I ran simulations for AKs against each of the pairs and every combination of Ax (both suited and non-suited). As I figure it, there are 213 different hands you can be against (counting each separately). I then figured out how many of those confrontations your AKs would win. I get 64.42%. Here are the numbers:

You have AK(s) against:
AA with 1 of your suit you win n/a
KK with 1 of your suit you win n/a
QQ with 1 of your suit you win 45.80%
JJ with 1 of your suit you win 45.80%
TT with 1 of your suit you win 46.00%
99 with 1 of your suit you win 47.50%
88 with 1 of your suit you win 47.40%
77 with 1 of your suit you win 47.50%
66 with 1 of your suit you win 47.50%
55 with 1 of your suit you win 48.00%
44 with 1 of your suit you win 48.70%
33 with 1 of your suit you win 48.80%
22 with 1 of your suit you win 49.40%
AA with 0 of your suit you win 12.10%
KK with 0 of your suit you win 34.00%
QQ with 0 of your suit you win 46.20%
JJ with 0 of your suit you win 46.30%
TT with 0 of your suit you win 45.90%
99 with 0 of your suit you win 47.60%
88 with 0 of your suit you win 47.80%
77 with 0 of your suit you win 47.80%
66 with 0 of your suit you win 47.50%
55 with 0 of your suit you win 48.30%
44 with 0 of your suit you win 48.50%
33 with 0 of your suit you win 49.20%
22 with 0 of your suit you win 49.90%
AK(s) with 0 of your suit you win 50.00%
AQ(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.30%
AJ(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.80%
AT(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.70%
A9(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.10%
A8(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.10%
A7(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.80%
A6(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.80%
A5(s) with 0 of your suit you win 69.80%
A4(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.20%
A3(s) with 0 of your suit you win 70.30%
A2(s) with 0 of your suit you win 71.10%
AK with 0 of your suit you win 52.50%
AQ with 0 of your suit you win 75.50%
AJ with 0 of your suit you win 75.20%
AT with 0 of your suit you win 75.30%
A9 with 0 of your suit you win 75.50%
A8 with 0 of your suit you win 75.30%
A7 with 0 of your suit you win 75.00%
A6 with 0 of your suit you win 75.30%
A5 with 0 of your suit you win 74.00%
A4 with 0 of your suit you win 74.60%
A3 with 0 of your suit you win 74.80%
A2 with 0 of your suit you win 75.50%
AK with 1 of your suit you win n/a
AQ with 1 of your suit you win 75.10%
AJ with 1 of your suit you win 75.10%
AT with 1 of your suit you win 74.70%
A9 with 1 of your suit you win 75.10%
A8 with 1 of your suit you win 74.80%
A7 with 1 of your suit you win 74.80%
A6 with 1 of your suit you win 74.70%
A5 with 1 of your suit you win 73.60%
A4 with 1 of your suit you win 74.20%
A3 with 1 of your suit you win 74.50%
A2 with 1 of your suit you win 74.90%


How are these data (remember they come from sims so are only approximate) useful?

1. They should not be read to mean that pushing in with AK(s) is always a good play. As has already been mentioned, situation is important.

2. In cash games, if noone has acted before you, I think this is probably not a good move. You probably will not be called and when you are, you will very likely be up against another AK, AA or KK. Unless the game you are in has a high blind structure, this is probably a mistake.

3. In cash games, if you are in late position, and you have several limpers in front, pushing it all in may get everyone to fold and you can pick up what is in the pot. I would not do this, however, in my first few minutes at the table. I would want to know if the people in early position are the type who limp with big hands hoping for a late raise, so that they can re-raise.

3. How about calling a big pre-flop raise in a cash game? Probably not a good idea against a very tight opponent. Probably the best time would be when it looks like a steal raise from late position and, say, you are in the blinds and can re-raise.

4. What about tournaments? Around bubble time, it may be a good strategy to push if you believe that the others are unwilling to gamble with all but the very best hands and the blinds and antes make the pot large. I am coming to the conclusion, however, that in most situations calling a desperation all in with AKs is a bad idea. If your opponent has an A, you are a healthy favorite, but you could well be up against a low pair. Then you are a slight dog. It depends on how you play your tournaments. Those in the "I'm only here for first place" camp may want to take this proposition. I, however, am coming to the opposite view. The way through a tournament is not to win a series of coin flips. It is to get your money in when you have the best of it, whenever possible and avoid unnecessary confrontations. Thus, in general, I believe that not calling an all-in with AKs is good tournament strategy.

As noted at the outset, others may disagree.

Jack