Re: Overbet bluff, NL$400
I actually like the bet more than a PSB. A 40/30 player(I imagine your post-flop-agg is ridicoulus aswell) will bet that river almost w/ any 2 after that action, and I for one would be very loose with my calling standards. But the over bet is very scary and alot of players freeze up when faced with it, atleast decent ones. I think villian will fold way above 50% of the time here, however I don't he'll fold as often as he needs to.
I c/f river.
Also, I'd wait for this spot until I have a hand that has absolutely no chance of winning a show down. If the river is checked through, your 8 might very well be best. So checking is +EV. Which means your bluff does not only have to be +EV, but more +EV than checking is for it to be correct.
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