Re: Perfect played set?
Who bets for value?
Since you said he often folds the river I think he will likely drop anything short of trips (which would shock me if had). He is thus only likely to call with a better hand and thus I'd check-behind here. I think the "value" bet is -EV.
who waits for turn to put in a raise?
Not I. I want to make anyone on the flush draw pays for it now.
Anyone consider betting out the flop?
For the reason above, I like betting the flop unless the button will nearly always bet here (raised pre-flopped, checked to on the flop).
One other comment on the pre-flop play:
With the button being a strong player I'd concider putting him on a steal here and reraise then lead the flop. I don't like the call as you don't have pot odds on making trips. Either take control by raising allowing for a flop bluff or fold. I think just calling the raise is the worst of the options.
|