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Folding here would be a substantial mistake in my opinion.
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Maybe a mistake, but I don't think it's substantial.
I just made like the longest post ever and it got deleted. WTF. I'll try to do it again but simplify what I was going to say.
Firstly, the pot is giving us 7.5:2 if the first bettor calls, not 8.5:1, I don't know where Gordon is getting that from.
I'd estimate we have 7 outs, I typed like 3 paragraphs why, but that's what I got.
So, now we have to figure out what odds we are getting. Simply leaving the odds at 7.5:2 is wrong. If we weigh 3-betting at 20% and capping at 5%, our true odds become about 8.1:2.3 or 3.5:1.
So with 7 outs, we need 5.6:1 before implied odds, and are 2.1 SB short. We have to then multiply by 2.3 to find how many SB we need to make up and get 4.83 SB.
So the question becomes, can we make up 4.83 SB on average? We have to remember also to take reverse implied odds into the equation here. I think we can do it, but it will be close. Our position on the raiser makes it difficult for us to get multiple bets out of both opponents. On the other hand, the board texture makes it more likely our opponents will at least want to see the river.
If anybody can't follow the math, let me know and I will explain better.
Some will saying doing this math at the table is impossible, but I think you should always be able to get ballpark estimates on true odds and true outs.
For another example of this kind of math, I recommend checking out
this post on GoT's blog.