Don't know what they did last timee, but during the 1990s FIFA used performance in the last three world cup finals (with greater weighting to the more recent) as the basis for their seeding system.

If they did this the US would score well for their 2002 performance but less well for 1998 when they lost all their games. It would probably put them in the second band of teams for the draw.

You'd think they'd have mannaged to work out what they were doing by now!