[Irieguy]

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I disagree with both of these statements.

I've got a >80% winrate at the $10.50s on bodog over 500 HU SnGs. I've likely been running hot, but the odds that I really should be at 70% are insignificant (at higher stakes, I assume this is nowhere near possible).

Also, variance in HU SnGs is very low, so I doubt you'd need 30 buy-ins if you've got a winrate of 60-70%. 15 should be fine.

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It's interesting that your understanding of HU variance is spot-on (you even provide the forumula for calculating it), while you would put in print the belief that there is an "insignificant" chance that you should win fewer than 70% of your matches.

But if you insist: I will wager any amount of money you wish that your win rate over your next 200 HU SNGs at any level on any site (assuming your opponents aren't trying to lose) is less than 75%.

I will also take side action for any amount on the same from anybody.

Irieguy