Re: Continuation bet - how far?
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How often would you continuation bet with overcards on a raggedy board when you were the PFR?
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Every time it's +EV to do so.
I know that's kind of a non-answer on par with "it depends," but that's the answer. It's not helpful to know that I tend to CB ~95% of the time in HU situations, ~50% of the time against 2 opponents, and infrequently against 3 or more opponents. That's not what you need to know. What you need to know is the purpose of your bet and the chance that it will succeed in order to estimate the EV of running a CB. EV is all that matters.
People who said that the hand 1 bet is not 100% bluff are correct; it is in fact a semi-bluff with a small value component. But I think it's not unlikely that someone hit the K, and I think it's also not unlikely that someone with just one small pair is set on showing thier hand down. Also, there's less "semi" in your semibluff, since you're often drawing only to an ace, sometimes to a Q also, and you could even be in a reverse-domination nightmare. In hand 1, of "semi", "bluff", and "value", I think "bluff" is the biggest component. It's certianly the most, erm... certian.
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