[Skipbidder]

I don't think you were estimating the probability of the question that OP actually asked.

What he was talking about was playing five hands in a row, flopping or turning the nuts with all five of them, and then eventually losing the hand on all five of them. This is significantly less likely than flopping a straight flush, I think. As you point out, this cannot be precisely calculated, because it requires knowledge about the likelihood of opponents calling along the way with hands that might need to come runner-runner to win. (It also obviously depends on whether OP was slowplaying any of these hands.) He already amended his claim by noting that he was multitabling at the time. This makes it more likely, but still considerably more improbable than you are suggesting. I think you are off by orders of magnitude here. In your earlier posts, you were discussing situations such as losing five hands in a row where you happened to flop or turn the nuts (but that didn't happen one after the other) or counting only hands that went to the showdown. That isn't what I understood OP to be asking about. (And his follow-up posts suggest that my view is closer to what OP was asking about.)

I think you are also underestimating the probability of a poster here exaggerating a story. I think that there is a natural tendency to spice up stories, and I think that this effect is stronger in poker players (who are used to bluffing anyway). I think that fishermen display the same tendencies. I couldn't honestly affirm that I've never exaggerated for effect when telling poker stories. Part of the issue is that nobody likes to hear about somebody else's bad beat story. You have to have enough of a zing to make it so it was worth listening to.

Surely I am entitled (or rather, compelled) to weigh the probability of an event happening vs. the probability that the person telling the story is mistaken or exaggerating.

I wasn't particularly nice to OP with my first response. I wish I had it to do over again. I'll be apologizing to him in the next post I make.

I'd be interested if you'd take another go at the problem with the following parameters:
1) Full table
2) Loose players
3) Five consecutive hands
4) Flop or turn the current nuts (AA preflop doesn't count as the nuts for this question)
5) Lose the hand in a showdown
6) Let's assume that OP slowplays flopped nuts (which makes it possible for some of the obscure runner-runners to come in)