Re: Turn action
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Assume you bet the pot on the flop and Villain calls.
Pot size is now $480. You each have $2360 behind. Turn card is 3 . Now what? One thing to consider is whether this card is a brick.
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obviously 10/20 is out of my league, but top 2 when you're four handed in a blind war is an absolute monster. The turn doesn't change that in my mind at all. The only things you're behind are a set (unlikely, that puts all 4 10s or Ks out there), quads (again unlikely), AA, or A3. #2 or #3 certainly could have A3, but i think they have weaker hands enough to take your chances here. In most cases i'm willing to play for my stack.
Scenario 1: good player thinks his top pair is good. I don't want to change his mind, bet 3/4 pot with a river plan of betting 1/2 pot and calling a push.
Scenario 2: weak player just called flop, which he's prone to do with both strong and marginal holdings. We are ahead the large majority of the time here, so bet out again... he'll most likely call with worse hands and call with better hands. Again 3/4 pot, and again 1/2 pot on the river but fold to a push.
scenario 3: i want to give this guy the opportunity to sense weakness and try to push me off the pot. 2/3 pot on the turn and a blocking bet on the river, calling a river push.
If raised on the turn by #2 im folding, by #3 i'm calling and check calling any river bet. if #1 raises the turn i'm not real sure what i'd do.... probably the same as #3.
Godfather: i really like your flop lines
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Donkey,
Thanks. I love thought experiments like these because they force me to consider the reasoning behind every move I make. It lets me examine my own weaknesses and holes in my thinking.
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