Re: PP100NL - stacking off w/bottom 2 on flop
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If you're that scared, don't even bet a flop.
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"Scared" might not have been the right word for me to use. What I meant was that there were very few "safe" turn cards, not that I'm going to check-fold to half of the deck.
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I know you're trying to rationalize your line here, but I say call the raise and lead out at ANY (non-nine) turn. If the opponent raises you there also, you can be done with the hand.
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If I were just trying to rationalize my play I wouldn't have bothered posting. This isn't a "look at this awesome hand I played!" post. My reads of his hand are those I had in mind while it was being played out. And yes I realize that my line's not great, in particular because if there's betting past the flop I'm probably looking at a tough decision.
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You are either way ahead or way behind here; I don't see an opponent re-opening the betting with just a flush draw.
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Note that it's difficult for him to have "just a flush draw", there'll overcards/pair/straight possibilities with just about any diamonds he could have. When he pushes, he could have any of these
6s 3h 486 49.09 504 50.91 0 0.00 0.491
8d 7d 504 50.91 486 49.09 0 0.00 0.509
6s 3h 647 65.35 343 34.65 0 0.00 0.654
Qd Jd 343 34.65 647 65.35 0 0.00 0.346
6s 3h 448 45.25 534 53.94 8 0.81 0.457
Ad 6d 534 53.94 448 45.25 8 0.81 0.543
6s 3h 2 0.20 988 99.80 0 0.00 0.002
9s 9c 988 99.80 2 0.20 0 0.00 0.998
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I think that re-raise was out of fear and as a result you ended up playing a far bigger pot than you wanted to. You might've won if Villain is bad enough to re-re-re-raise an overpair here, but I can't see what hand you beat that min-raises and then raises all in.
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If I had a big draw in MP3's position, I'd certainly consider the line he took (albeit with a bigger flop raise). Same if I had a set. He's laggier than I am, which is why I included the top-pair/weak overpair hands as possibilities. They're not the ones I see as most likely.
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