Re: AA in EP
I ran into some donks recently who used multiple donk bets with a very strong hand and I ended up paying off big. Donk-fecta or I don't know.
Like you said he could have TT (3),88 (3), AK (3) in this spot and we fear JQ (16). If he plays all these this way that makes you an underdog... (9-16)
Why would he not cap the turn without QJ? I think he has a weaker hand than the nuts, got scared when you raised him and then said [censored] it, I have a good hand therefore I bet. In the heat of the action that sounds much more likely than, "oh lets just call and then do my nasty donk bet - 3 bet line". You need to be about 2-1 favorite to raise here unless he will reraise you with weaker hands.
So we get 2/1 = 9/16 x L, where L is how more likely he is to play hands you beat this way.
It gives us a L of about 3.6. So a raise is correct if you think he will play a set or top 2 about 4 times more often this way then JQ.
I think it's about right.
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