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Old 12-19-2005, 07:34 PM
SteveY SteveY is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 157
Default Re: Party $2/4 LO8 hand question

i think preflop is fine. when thevoice reraises, i would guess he had something like AA2, A23 or maybe A2KK / A2QQ. Stuff like that.

on the flop: i think the flop raise is great. the worst spot we could be in would be if an Acehigh flush draw and another A2 was out against us. i think the fact that we have the 2c is pretty important, as it makes it less likely that thevoice would have an Ace club draw. He would have to have Ac3c or Acxc. Accc should be only a small concern since he reraised pre, so he would need something like Ac234c, and AcA24c, or maybe AcA34c and Ac24Qc. He probably wont have a dry Acxc here basically. Ac3c is a legit concern, but its a small part of his range. I think we gain a lot when he doesnt have Ac3c, which is more often. So even though he could have Ac3c, it doesnt happen often enough to disuade us from raising for value, espeically with larking in between us. Also having TP adds to our equity. It basically acts as a two pair draw, so having it is helpful since we can also win by catching two pair if we miss the flush draw. we are probably going to the river anyway, so having a good pair helps.

If our flush draw is best, i dont think we care how many A2 are out vs us, since even if they hit their low, we have a legit draw for the high as well. anyways i just plugged in the actual hands to twodimes and i guessed what ospdotcom might have (another A2). We weren't in that bad shape. http://tinyurl.com/dtout if you fiddle around and change our Kc into A Tc, then we are in worse shape. and if you change AA33 into AA23 with the flush draw, then we are in bad shape too.

i think the flop cap was too much b/c thevoice's 3bet narrows down his range a lot. Probably to something like a set of K's, an a high flush draw all combined with either the nut low or second nut low draw possibly with counterfeit protection. Like when he threebets I cant think of something that he could have that doesnt hurt us in some way, unless he would pump a dry A23 there. But hes TAG so that seems unlikely. He most likely has a good 2-way hand, which is generally bad for us. But i just gave him A2KK in twodimes and we still seemed to be above 25% equity, so maybe i am wrong here.

turn: i really think you should slow down here. Your low draw is crap now, and its not even clear if you have the best flush draw or even the best hand at that point. The pot is big (i dunno how big) but you can just count some of your odds to see if you should continue. you are probably only drawing to half, so just cut the potsize in half then count your outs.

River is fine i think. We would be hoping that we could still beat larking (likely), and that our two pair beats thevoice's high (possible since Ac3cxx/AA23). opsdotcom, well its hard to read his hand :/

am i wrong anywhere?

edit: eh i missed that your 2 pair was killed on the river. maybe you should fold then. just look at the pot size i guess. Your paying for half and the pot is 30 BBs. So if you think 15-1 is enough for your AKK77. wed have to hope that thevoice has ac3c, larking is really bad and can actually have something worse than twopair, and that opsdotcom cant beat twopair or was going low, or has just a low with A3. seems pretty thin.
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