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Old 01-08-2005, 07:18 AM
bholdr bholdr is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: whoring for bonus
Posts: 1,442
Default Re: BJ down swing- want to find out how rare of an event this is...

thanks a lot for the reply. told you i'm a probability noob.

it was seperated, more or less, at random. to count the number of hands that i play, i hold a deck of cards in my left hand as i operate the mouse with my right, and drop one for each bet i make. it's easier than counting in my head or on paper. (and after trying for a few hours to count in my head, i found myself counting nonsensical things all the time. steps, cars that drive by, etc. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img])

i the sets that i mentioned were #s 4,5,6, and 7 in a total of 12 sets. so the start and finish times were not dependant on the start or finish of that bad streak. in fact, i think i won like the last seven hands in a row of the last set.

set 1: +1.5 bets
set 2: -5 bets
set 3: +4 bets

then it all goes to hell,

the rest was pretty even.
I gave only the sets that concerned me because i was wondering what the odds of a swing like that happening in a random set of about 200 hands (212 bets in this case). Btw i cleared that bnus in the next session i played for a 56$ profit in two hours at about 250 hands/ hr. that partiicular site has slow software and i was eating dinner and then watching the simpsons at the same time. when i am really in a rythym, with fast software, i push 600 h/hr with about 1 mistake/100 hands.

any more info on odds calculations, even a good textbook recomendation, would be much appreiciated. the more i gamble, the more i wish i had payed attn in math class. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

thanks again, pzhon!
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