[Surfbullet]

Hey Cartman,

Regarding Nikla's post:

If I understand the general idea, it is that even if we have a hand such as K9-hi which isn't inspiring in of itself, it is actually a hand with a significant amount of showdown value heads-up. This assumes our opponent will peel loosely and often has a hand worse than ours. In a multiway pot gone headsup this does not apply. Additionally, many opponents who are loose preflop will only call the flop with some draw or pair or big Ace.

Giving a free card in position is bad when we are often ahead because:
-We don't give our opponent the chance to make a mistake by calling incorrectly
-We forfeit our hand's showdown value since only the best of our unpaired hands can call a river bet
-We make ourselves easier to play against - players are more likely to peel lightly on the flop if they can expect a free card with any regularity

However, other factors sway a bet to a check, as mentioned above:
-How likely our opponent is likely to bluff-raise a worse hand on the turn
-If our opponent would fold correctly on the turn but bluff incorrectly on the river
-How likely we are to have the best hand

Accurately judging how often our A-or K-hi hand is best is a difficult endeavor to say the least, but the most important. When we are often behind it is clearly wrong to bet, since we will not fold worse hands. Reading the board texture, knowing our opponent(whether by stats, category LAG/TAG etc or hopefully by reads) and recognizing the flow of the game (have we been consistently showing down winners?) all factor into this difficult analysis.

Surf