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Old 11-18-2005, 04:49 PM
rvg72 rvg72 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 113
Default Re: Something to help others with variance

I wrote some free simulation software that can quantify a lot of what you are talking about. Here is the thread link:

Limit Simulator

I manually adjusted some of the win / loss breakdowns to make this a 2.00 BB player and simulated result over 10,000 hands and ran the sim 1000 times.

The Best Simulation hit 793.5 BB's
The Worst Simulation hit -392 BB's

Taking a more realistic number, the 90th percentile won 448 BB's and the 10th percentile lost 36 BB's which is a gap of 484 BB's or 4.84 BB/100 for a "REAL" 2BB/100 player...

From this I can also see that a real 2BB/100 player will lose money over a 10K stretch about 13% of the time and will be losing over 25K hands about 6% of the time!

rvg
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